MODELS AND METHODS IN MODERN SCIENCE
International scientific-online conference
81
THE STATE OF DEVELOPMENT OF UZBEKISTAN'S FOREIGN
TRADE
Kamolov Uygun Tulkinovich
Bukhara University of Innovation
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.14868559
Introduction
Foreign trade is a fundamental driver of Uzbekistan's
economic growth, facilitating global economic integration, attracting foreign
direct investment (FDI), and fostering industrial modernization. In 2023,
Uzbekistan's total trade turnover amounted to $60.8 billion, reflecting a 23.5%
year-on-year increase (State Committee on Statistics, 2024). This growth is
attributed to a series of trade liberalization policies, economic diversification,
and strategic partnerships with key trading blocs. However, challenges such as
high reliance on primary commodities (gold and natural gas constitute 47% of
exports), limited technological exports, and logistical constraints persist.
Addressing these bottlenecks is crucial to sustaining long-term trade expansion.
Objective and research tasks
The objective of this study is to conduct a
comprehensive assessment of Uzbekistan's foreign trade dynamics, identify
structural inefficiencies, and project future trends based on macroeconomic
indicators. The study aims to:
Analyze trade volume dynamics from 2018 to 2024 and identify key
drivers of change;
Examine sectoral contributions to exports and imports, highlighting
competitive industries;
Assess the impact of tariff and non-tariff barriers on trade
expansion;
Evaluate regional trade agreements, such as Uzbekistan's accession
to the EAEU observer status;
Provide policy recommendations to enhance trade sustainability and
diversification.
Materials and Methods.
This study employs a mixed-methods approach,
integrating quantitative data from the World Bank, IMF, and WTO trade
databases with qualitative assessments from expert interviews and policy
analysis. Statistical modeling, including trade elasticity calculations and
regression analysis, is used to estimate the impact of exchange rate fluctuations
and trade policy shifts on export performance.
Results
. Empirical analysis indicates that Uzbekistan's trade structure has
shifted towards greater regional integration. Exports to the CIS region increased
by 18.7% in 2023, driven by enhanced trade relations with Russia and
MODELS AND METHODS IN MODERN SCIENCE
International scientific-online conference
82
Kazakhstan. Meanwhile, imports surged due to increased machinery and
equipment procurement, accounting for 36.2% of total imports (Ministry of
Investments and Foreign Trade, 2024). The government’s initiative to establish
free economic zones (FEZs) has accelerated non-commodity exports, with
processed agricultural products witnessing a 21% increase. However, the
persistent trade deficit (-$5.2 billion in 2023) underscores the need for a more
balanced trade policy.
Conclusion
. Uzbekistan's foreign trade trajectory is on an upward path,
bolstered by economic reforms and regional partnerships. However, to mitigate
external vulnerabilities, the country must prioritize industrial diversification,
modernize transport corridors, and strengthen institutional trade frameworks.
By leveraging digital trade platforms and expanding global market access,
Uzbekistan can enhance trade resilience and achieve sustainable growth. The
projected trade expansion of 6.8% in 2024-2025, coupled with strategic policy
interventions, will be pivotal in solidifying Uzbekistan’s position in the global
economy.
References:
1.
International Monetary Fund. (2024).
2.
World Economic Outlook: Trade and Investment Trends. IMF Publications.
Ministry of Investments and Foreign Trade of Uzbekistan. (2024).
3.
Foreign Trade Analysis Report 2023-2024.
4.
State Committee on Statistics of Uzbekistan. (2024).
5.
Annual Trade Statistics Report. World Bank. (2024).
6.
Uzbekistan Economic Update: Trade and Growth. World Trade
Organization. (2024).
7.
Trade Policy Review: Uzbekistan.
