No. 14 (2024) Science and technology in the modern world

Бинолар ва иншоотларнинг эксплуатация ҳолати бевосита улардаги намлик ва ҳарорат балансига боғлиқ. Баланс бузилганда, бу катта молиявий йўқотишларга олиб келади. Шу боисдан, лойиҳалаш босқичида ва ишлаб турган ер ости қисмларида ишончли гидроизоляция тизимининг мавжудлиги иншоотларнинг мустаҳкамлигини таъминлаш ва уларнинг эксплуатацион хавфсизлигини кафолатлаш учун муҳим ҳисобланади [1, 2].

This article forecasts fruit production indicators in Surkhandarya region using ARIMA models. First, a brief overview of the ARIMA model is provided. The significance of the model was evaluated by MAPE, and the statistical significance of its parameters was assessed using the Augmented Dickey-Fuller test. The properties of ACF and PACF for some popular models are summarized. The compliance of the residuals with the normal distribution law and the absence of autocorrelation in them were studied. As a result, forecast values up to 2028 were developed.