FORECASTING THE SIZE OF THE SHARE OF SMALL BUSINESS AND PRIVATE ENTREPRENEURSHIP IN THE FIELD OF SERVICE PROVISION IN SURKHONDARYO REGION

Abstract

In this article, the share of small business and private entrepreneurship in the service sector in the Surkhandarya region is forecasted using exponential, linear, polynomial, graded, logarithmic trend models until 2028, and the type of model most suitable for the economic process is determined.

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Egamnazarova, G., & Turaev, B. . (2024). FORECASTING THE SIZE OF THE SHARE OF SMALL BUSINESS AND PRIVATE ENTREPRENEURSHIP IN THE FIELD OF SERVICE PROVISION IN SURKHONDARYO REGION. Journal of Universal Science Research, 2(5), 892–903. Retrieved from https://www.inlibrary.uz/index.php/universal-scientific-research/article/view/33582
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Abstract

In this article, the share of small business and private entrepreneurship in the service sector in the Surkhandarya region is forecasted using exponential, linear, polynomial, graded, logarithmic trend models until 2028, and the type of model most suitable for the economic process is determined.


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892

SURXONDARYO VILOYATIDA KICHIK BIZNES VA XUSUSIY

TADBIRKORLIKNING XIZMAT KO’RSATISH SOHASIDAGI ULUSHI

HAJMINI PROGNOZLASH

G.X. Egamnazarova

Termiz davlat universiteti

B.E. Turayev

Termiz davlat universiteti katta o’qituvchisi, i.f.f.d.


Annotatsiya:

Ushbu maqolada Surxondaryo viloyatida kichik biznes va xususiy

tadbirkorlikning xizmat ko’rsatish sohasidagi ulushi hajmini

eksponentsial, chiziqli,

polinomli, darajali, logarifmli trend modellari yordamida 2028 yilga qadar prognoz
qilingan hamda iqtisodiy jarayonga eng mos model turi aniqlangan.

Kalit so’zlar:

eksponentsial, chiziqli, polinomli, darajali, logarifmli trend

modellari, regressiya.

FORECASTING THE SIZE OF THE SHARE OF SMALL BUSINESS AND

PRIVATE ENTREPRENEURSHIP IN THE FIELD OF SERVICE

PROVISION IN SURKHONDARYO REGION

Abstract

: In this article, the share of small business and private

entrepreneurship in the service sector in the Surkhandarya region is forecasted using
exponential, linear, polynomial, graded, logarithmic trend models until 2028, and the
type of model most suitable for the economic process is determined.

Key words:

exponential, linear, polynomial, rank, logarithmic trend models,

regression.

ПРОГНОЗИРОВАНИЕ РАЗМЕРА ДОЛИ МАЛОГО БИЗНЕСА И

ЧАСТНОГО ПРЕДПРИНИМАТЕЛЬСТВА В СФЕРЕ

ПРЕДОСТАВЛЕНИЯ УСЛУГ В СУРХОНДАРЬИНСКОЙ ОБЛАСТИ

Аннотация:

В данной статье с использованием экспоненциальной,

линейной, полиномиальной, градуированной, логарифмической трендовых
моделей до 2028 года прогнозируется доля малого бизнеса и частного


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893

предпринимательства в сфере услуг Сурхандарьинской области, а также тип
модели, наиболее подходящий для экономического процесса. определен.

Ключевые слова:

экспоненциальная, линейная, полиномиальная,

ранговая, логарифмическая трендовая модель, регрессия.


Etakchi xorijiy davlatlarning (AQSh, Germaniya, Buyuk Britaniya) tajribasi

shuni ko'rsatadiki, ijtimoiy-iqtisodiy rivojlanishda yangi darajasiga mintaqaviy
darajada xizmat ko'rsatish sohasidagi chuqur o'zgarishlarsiz erishish mumkin emas

1

.

Xizmat ko‘rsatish sohasi aholi va korxonalarga turli xizmatlar ko‘rsatish, ishlab
chiqarish samaradorligini oshirish va turmush darajasini oshirishga ko‘maklashish
orqali iqtisodiyotni rivojlantirishda muhim o‘rin tutadi.

Xizmat ko'rsatish sohasi samaradorligini istiqbollarini taxmin qilish biznes

jarayonlarini optimallashtirish, resurslarni rejalashtirish, risklarni boshqarish va
asoslangan qarorlar qabul qilish uchun muhimdir. Bu soha korxonalari rivojlanish
strategiyasini samarali shakllantirish, mijozlarga xizmat ko'rsatish darajasini oshirish
va moliyaviy natijalarni yaxshilash imkonini beradi. Shu jihatdan, uning kelgisida
vujudga kelishi mumkin bo’lgan holatlarini modellashtirish ahamiyatli hisoblanadi.

Surxondaryo viloyatida kichik biznes va xususiy tadbirkorlikning xizmat

ko’rsatish sohasidagi ulushi hajmini tadqiq etishda ko’rsatkichlarning yillar
oralig’idagi o'zgarishini o'rganish ahamiyati katta. Sababi, o'tmish va hozirgi
tendentsiyalar, qonuniyatlar va aloqalar kelgusi rivojlanish tendentsiyalariga ta’sir
etadi. Bunday holatlarda trend modellari bilan prognozlashtirish ko’rsatkichlarning
nazariy qiymatlarini aniqlash orqali kelgusi holatni tadqiq etish imkonini beradi. Trend
modellari tajribalarda keng qo'llaniladigan eng sodda prognozlash modellaridan biri
hisoblanadi.

Trend - jarayonning uzoq vaqt davomida barqaror, tizimli o‘zgarishidir. Shu

munosabat bilan modellashtirilgan ijtimoiy-iqtisodiy tizimning rivojlanishi tendentsiya
va asosiy ko'rsatkichlar orqali aks ettiriladigan iqtisodiy-matematik dinamik model
trend modeli deb ataladi. Unda natijaviy belgi sifatrida o'rganayotgan ko'rsatkich, omil

1

Молев М.Д. Региональная сфера обслуживания: концепция развития. Научный журнал Серсис PLUS, №3, 2009.


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894

belgi sifatida esa kuzatuv davri soni olinadi. Odatda trend modellari umumiy ko’rinishi
quyidagicha bo’ladi

2

:

𝑦

𝑡

= 𝑓(𝑡) + 𝜀

𝑡

(1)

bu yerda,

𝑓(𝑡)

- jarayonlaming vaqt bo'yicha yo'nalishining doimiy tarkibiy

qismi;

𝜀

𝑡

- tasodifiy tarkibiy qism;

Trend modellarining keng qo’llaniladigan quyidagi turlari mavjud

3

4

5

6

:

-

𝑦 = 𝑎 + 𝑏𝑡

- chiziqli trend modeli

-

𝑦 = 𝑎𝑒

𝑏𝑡

- eksponentsial trend modeli

-

𝑦 = 𝑎 + 𝑏

1

𝑥 + 𝑏

2

𝑥

2

- 2-darajali polinom

-

𝑦 = 𝑎𝑡

𝑏

- darajali

-

𝑦 = 𝑎 + 𝑏ln𝑡

- logarifmik trend tenglamalari

Odatda, trend parametrlari eng kichik kvadratlar usuli yordamida baholanadi.

Egri chiziqli trend modellari logarifmlash yo‘li bilan chiziqli trend ko‘rinishiga
keltiriladi va tegishli hisob-kitoblar amalga oshiriladi.

Eng maqbul modelni tanlash uchun ularning determinatsiya koeffitsienti va

xatoliklariga ko’zdan kechiriladi.

rxondaryo viloyatida kichik biznes va xususiy tadbirkorlikning xizmat ko’rsatish

sohasidagi ulushi hajmini eksponentsial, chiziqli, darajali va 2-tartibi polinom trend
modellari bilan modellashtirish uchun Microsoft Excel dasturiy ta’minotining «

Анализ

данных

» paketidan foydalangan holda amalga oshirildi. Dastlab tahlil uchun 1-

jadvaldagi ma’lumotlardan foydalanildi.

1-jadval

Surxondaryo viloyatida kichik biznes va xususiy tadbirkorlikning xizmat

ko’rsatish sohasidagi ulushi hajmi (mlrd so’m)

7

2

Фукина С.П. Трендовые модели в экономических исследованиях // Экономический анализ: теория и практика.

2011. №11. URL: https://cyberleninka.ru/article/n/trendovye-modeli-v-ekonomicheskih-issledovaniyah (дата
обращения: 28.11.2023).

3

Tuychiyeva, M. K., & Turayev, B. E. (2024). Trend modellari yordamida elektron tijorat aylanmasi hajmini

modellashtirish va prognozlashtirish. Technical science research in Uzbekistan, 2(2), 193-199.

4

Mirzohidovna, P. M., & Turayev, B. E. (2024). Surxondaryo viloyati asosiy kapitalga kiritilgan investitsiyalar hajmini

trend modellari orqali modellashtirish. Journal of Universal Science Research, 2(2), 296-302.

5

Xursanova, S. A., & Turayev, B. E. (2024). Hudud dehqonchilik mahsulotlari ishlab chiqarish hajmini trend modellari

yordamida prognozlashtirish. Technical science research in Uzbekistan, 2(2), 200-208.

6

Tulaganova, M. H., & Turayev, B. E. (2024). Asosiy kapitalga kiritilgan investitsiyalarni trend modellari yordamida

prognozlash (Surxondaryo viloyati misolida). Technical science research in Uzbekistan, 2(2), 223-230.

7

Surxondaryo viloyati Statistika boshqarmasi rasmiy sayti

www.surxonstat.uz

ma’lumotlari.


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895

Yillar

𝒚

Yillar

𝒚

2010

653,6

2017

3 431,7

2011

847,9

2018

4 563,9

2012

1 088,4

2019

4 879,9

2013

1 388,2

2020

5 331,3

2014

1 845,6

2021

6 938,5

2015

2 360,0

2022

8 292,3

2016

3 015,2

2023

9 979,1

Tajriba uchun ma’lumotlarni MS Excelga yuklab oldik. Ma’lumotlar oraligini

belgilab olib, “

Вставка – Диаграмма – Точечная – Точечная

” diagrammasini, keyin

esa, istalgan nuqtani belgilab, sichqonchaning o’ng tugmasini bosish orqali hosil
qilinadigan menyudan “

Добавить линию тренда...

” ni tanladik. Natijada quyidagiga

ega bo’ldik (1-rasm).

1-rasm. Eksponentsial trend modeli

8

Boshqa model turlarini tanlab 2-5-rasmlardagi natijalarga ega bo’lamiz.

8

Muallif ishlanmasi

y = 613,74e

0,2057x

R² = 0,987

0,0

2 000,0

4 000,0

6 000,0

8 000,0

10 000,0

12 000,0

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16


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896

2-rasm. Chiziqli trend modeli

3-rasm. Logarifmik trend modeli

y = 671,59x - 1135,8

R² = 0,9278

-2 000,0

0,0

2 000,0

4 000,0

6 000,0

8 000,0

10 000,0

12 000,0

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

y = 3149ln(x) - 1765,1

R² = 0,6985

-4 000,0

-2 000,0

0,0

2 000,0

4 000,0

6 000,0

8 000,0

10 000,0

12 000,0

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16


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897

4-rasm. 2-darajali polinom trend modeli

5-rasm. Darajali trend modeli.

Shunday qilib, barcha turdagi modellarni tuzib oldik. Endi ularning sifatini va

ahamiyatliligini tekshirib ko’ramiz (2-jadval).

2-jadval

Regression tahlil natijalari

9

9

Muallif ishlanmasi

y = 48,868x

2

- 61,43x + 818,92

R² = 0,9907

0,0

2 000,0

4 000,0

6 000,0

8 000,0

10 000,0

12 000,0

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

y = 410,48x

1,0808

R² = 0,9333

0,0

2 000,0

4 000,0

6 000,0

8 000,0

10 000,0

12 000,0

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16


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898

T/r

Model turi

Model tenglam,asi

Determinatsiya

koeffitsienti

1

Eksponentsial

𝑦 = 613,74𝑒

0,2057𝑡

0,987

2

Chiziqli

𝑦 = 671,59𝑡 − 1135,8

0,9278

3

Logarifmik

𝑦 = 3149 ln(𝑡) − 1765,1

0,6985

4

Polinomli

𝑦 = 48,868𝑡

2

− 61,43𝑡

+ 818,92

0,9907

5

Darajali

𝑦 = 410,48𝑡

1.0808

0,9333

2-jadvaldan 2-darajali polinom trend modeli bo’yicha determinatsiya

koeffitsienti eng katta. Demak, model sifati boshqalarga qaraganda yuqori. Modelning
ahamiyatini Fisher mezoni bilan va parametrlari statistik ishonchliligini Styudent t
mezoni bilan tekrishilganda ba’zi koeffitsiyentlari statistik ahamiyatga ega bo’lmadi.
Shu sababli o’zgarmas qatnashmagan 2-darajali polinom model turini tajribadan
o’tkazdik (3-jadval).

3-jadval

Regression tahlil natijalari

10

ВЫВОД
ИТОГОВ

Регрессионная статистика

Множественны
й R

0,997

R-квадрат

0,994

Нормированны
й R-квадрат

0,911

Стандартная
ошибка

387,527

Наблюдения

14

10

MS Excelda shakllantirildi.


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899

Дисперсионный анализ

df

SS

MS

F

Значи-
мость F

Регрессия

2

321852164

160926082

1
071,577

2,48E-13

Остаток

12

1802122,13

150176,84
4

Итого

14

323654286

Коэффи-
циенты

Стандарт
-ная
ошибка

t-ста-
тистика

P-
Значени
е

Нижние
95%

Y-пересечение

0

#Н/Д

#Н/Д

#Н/Д

#Н/Д

Переменная X 1 164,032

48,801

3,361

0,006

57,703

Переменная X 2 35,910

4,351

8,253

0,000

26,430

3-jadvalga ko’ra, Fisher F mezoni qiymati 1071,577. Bu qiymat jadval

qiymatidan

katta.

Sababi,

p-qiymat

2,48 ∙ 10

−13

ga

teng.

Shuningdek,

parametrlarining Styudent t mezoni bo’yicha qiymati esa 3,361 va 8,253 ga teng.
Bunda p-qiymat 0,05 ahamiyatlilik darajasidan kichik. Demak, model iqtisodiy
jarayonga mos.

Shunday qilib, rxondaryo viloyatida kichik biznes va xususiy tadbirkorlikning

xizmat ko’rsatish sohasidagi ulushi hajmi bo’yicha modeli umumiy ko’rinishi
quyidagicha bo’ldi:

𝑦 = 48,868𝑡

2

− 61,43𝑡 + 818,92

(2)

Bu modeldan foydalanib, hudud kichik biznes va xususiy tadbirkorlikning

xizmat ko’rsatish sohasidagi ulushi hajmi prognoz qilindi. (6-rasm)


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900

6-rasm. Surxondaryo viloyatida kichik biznes va xususiy tadbirkorlikning xizmat

ko’rsatish sohasidagi ulushi hajmi (mlrd so’m).

6-rasmga ko’ra 2028 yilga kelib, rxondaryo viloyatida kichik biznes va xususiy

tadbirkorlikning xizmat ko’rsatish sohasidagi ulushi hajmi 16 080,2 mlrd so’mni,
o’sish esa 161% ni tashkil etishi kutilmoqda.

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653,6847,91 088,4

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, (6-1), 418-426.

21.

Turopova, N. (2023). O ‘zbekiston moliya tizimida mahalliy moliyaning o

‘ziga xos xususiyatlari.

22.

Solidjonovna, S. R. (2024). The role of localization of production in the

stable and consistent development of the economy.

Web of Scientists and Scholars:

Journal of Multidisciplinary Research

,

2

(3), 1-4.

23.

Gulnoza, E. (2024). The status of the population's use of the stock market in

Uzbekistan. Western European Journal of Linguistics and Education, 2(4), 145-149.

24.

qizi Egamnazarova, G. X. (2024). Kreditning mohiyati, asosiy funksiyalari

va tashkil qilishning nazariy asoslari.

Multidisciplinary Journal of Science and

Technology

, 4(3), 748-754.

25.

qizi Egamnazarova, G. X. (2024). Kredit turlari va uning ilmiy-nazariy

asoslari.

Multidisciplinary Journal of Science and Technology

, 4(3), 755-762.

26.

qizi Egamnazarova, G. X. (2024). Aholi farovonligini oshirishda kredit

mablag'laridan foydalanishning ilg'or xorij tajribalari.

Multidisciplinary Journal of

Science and Technology

, 4(3), 763-770.

27.

Allayarov, P. (2022). The factors affecting Kyrgyzstan's bilateral trade: a

gravity-model approach.

Архив научных исследований

, 4(1).

28.

Khassanov, F. O., Khuzhanazarov, U., Rakhimova, N., Esankulov, A., &

Achilova, N. (2013). Two new species of Iris L.(Iridaceae Juss.) from Uzbekistan.

Stapfia

, 99, 1-3.


background image

ISSN (E): 2181-4570 ResearchBib Impact Factor: 6,4 / 2023 SJIF 2024 = 5.073/Volume-2, Issue-5

903

29.

Bozorov, R. K., & Esankulov, A. E. (2019). Practice of analysis of financial

stability indicators of major commercial banks in Uzbekistan. International

Journal of

Advanced Science and Technology

, 28(20), 873-880.

30.

Eshquvvatov, O. A. (2024). Activation of the human factor in the innovative

economy.

Multidisciplinary Journal of Science and Technology

, 4(3), 475-479.

31.

Eshquvvatov, O. A. (2024). The role of information in the implementation

of foreign economic activity.

Multidisciplinary Journal of Science and Technology

,

4(3), 470-474.

32.

Solijonovna, S. R. (2023). Import Replacement-As an Assistant Mechanism

for Diversification of Production and Approval of Foreign Trade.

33.

Sultonov, X. G. (2022). Effectiveness of attracting investments in improving

the ecological condition of irrigated lands.

Экономика и социум

, (4-1 (95)), 56-60.

34.

Allayor o’g’li, X. R. (2024). Eksport faoliyatini takomillashtirishning xorijiy

mamlakatlar tajribasi.

Technical science research in uzbekistan

, 2(2), 154-160.

35.

Norqobilov, N., & Abdullayev, J. (2023). Specific features of solving the

housing problem in our country in the context of economic reforms.

Multidisciplinary

Journal of Science and Technology

, 3(2), 21-23.

36.

Jumanazar o’g’li, X. M., & Eshpo’latovich, A. J. (2024). Bozor

iqtisodiyotining mazmuni va asosiy belgilari.

Ijtimoiy fanlarda innovasiya onlayn ilmiy

jurnali

, 4(4), 39-41.

37.

O‘G‘Li, S. M. F., & Eshpo’latovich, A. J. (2024). Iqtisodiyot va uning

tarmoqlarini raqamlashtirish. Iqtisodiyot sohasiga raqamli texnalogiyalarni olib
kirilishi.

Ijtimoiy fanlarda innovasiya onlayn ilmiy jurnali

, 4(4), 56-60.

38.

Surxondaryo

viloyati

Statistika

boshqarmasi

rasmiy

sayti

www.surxonstat.uz ma’lumotlari.

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Safarovna K. S. et al. Surxondaryo viloyati aholi jon boshining asosiy kapitaliga o'zlashtirilgan investitsiyalar hajmini arima modeli yordamida prognozlashtirish //Journal of Universal Science Research. – 2024. – Т. 2. – №. 2. – С. 257-266.

Буранова, Л. В. (2023). Повышение эффективности управления кредитными ресурсами предприятия. O'zbekistonda fanlararo innovatsiyalar va ilmiy tadqiqotlar jurnali, 2(19), 329-333.

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Khidirberdievich, A. E., & Mamadillayevich, Z. S. (2021). Issues of Regulation of Blockchains in the Digital Economy and World Experience in Reducing, Preventing the" Hidden Economy". International Journal of Multicultural and Multireligious Understanding, 8(7), 591-597.

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Алтиев, А. С., Очилов, И. С., & Султонов, Х. Ғ. (2021). Global experiences in improving the economic mechanisms of irrigated land improvement. Экономика и социум, (6-1), 418-426.

Turopova, N. (2023). O ‘zbekiston moliya tizimida mahalliy moliyaning o ‘ziga xos xususiyatlari.

Solidjonovna, S. R. (2024). The role of localization of production in the stable and consistent development of the economy. Web of Scientists and Scholars: Journal of Multidisciplinary Research, 2(3), 1-4.

Gulnoza, E. (2024). The status of the population's use of the stock market in Uzbekistan. Western European Journal of Linguistics and Education, 2(4), 145-149.

qizi Egamnazarova, G. X. (2024). Kreditning mohiyati, asosiy funksiyalari va tashkil qilishning nazariy asoslari. Multidisciplinary Journal of Science and Technology, 4(3), 748-754.

qizi Egamnazarova, G. X. (2024). Kredit turlari va uning ilmiy-nazariy asoslari. Multidisciplinary Journal of Science and Technology, 4(3), 755-762.

qizi Egamnazarova, G. X. (2024). Aholi farovonligini oshirishda kredit mablag'laridan foydalanishning ilg'or xorij tajribalari. Multidisciplinary Journal of Science and Technology, 4(3), 763-770.

Allayarov, P. (2022). The factors affecting Kyrgyzstan's bilateral trade: a gravity-model approach. Архив научных исследований, 4(1).

Khassanov, F. O., Khuzhanazarov, U., Rakhimova, N., Esankulov, A., & Achilova, N. (2013). Two new species of Iris L.(Iridaceae Juss.) from Uzbekistan. Stapfia, 99, 1-3.

Bozorov, R. K., & Esankulov, A. E. (2019). Practice of analysis of financial stability indicators of major commercial banks in Uzbekistan. International Journal of Advanced Science and Technology, 28(20), 873-880.

Eshquvvatov, O. A. (2024). Activation of the human factor in the innovative economy. Multidisciplinary Journal of Science and Technology, 4(3), 475-479.

Eshquvvatov, O. A. (2024). The role of information in the implementation of foreign economic activity. Multidisciplinary Journal of Science and Technology, 4(3), 470-474.

Solijonovna, S. R. (2023). Import Replacement-As an Assistant Mechanism for Diversification of Production and Approval of Foreign Trade.

Sultonov, X. G. (2022). Effectiveness of attracting investments in improving the ecological condition of irrigated lands. Экономика и социум, (4-1 (95)), 56-60.

Allayor o’g’li, X. R. (2024). Eksport faoliyatini takomillashtirishning xorijiy mamlakatlar tajribasi. Technical science research in uzbekistan, 2(2), 154-160.

Norqobilov, N., & Abdullayev, J. (2023). Specific features of solving the housing problem in our country in the context of economic reforms. Multidisciplinary Journal of Science and Technology, 3(2), 21-23.

Jumanazar o’g’li, X. M., & Eshpo’latovich, A. J. (2024). Bozor iqtisodiyotining mazmuni va asosiy belgilari. Ijtimoiy fanlarda innovasiya onlayn ilmiy jurnali, 4(4), 39-41.

O‘G‘Li, S. M. F., & Eshpo’latovich, A. J. (2024). Iqtisodiyot va uning tarmoqlarini raqamlashtirish. Iqtisodiyot sohasiga raqamli texnalogiyalarni olib kirilishi. Ijtimoiy fanlarda innovasiya onlayn ilmiy jurnali, 4(4), 56-60.

Surxondaryo viloyati Statistika boshqarmasi rasmiy sayti www.surxonstat.uz ma’lumotlari.