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VOLUME
Vol.05 Issue 04 2025
PAGE NO.
31-38
10.37547/ijmef/Volume05Issue04-05
Trade openness and its impact on the structure of the
Iraqi trade balance an analytical study for the period
(2013-2023)
Abdulmahdi Raheem Hamza
1
, Ameer Faris Taha
2
, Munaf Marza Neama
3
1,2
Al-Mustaqbal University
3
AL-Qadisiyah University
Received:
20 February 2025;
Accepted:
18 March 2025;
Published:
22 April 2025
Abstract:
International trade is a fundamental pillar of the global economy, and greatly affects the growth and
development of countries. Due to this importance, many researchers have become increasingly interested in
studying its variables and their effects on the balance of payments in particular and economic stability in
particular. One of the important topics for international trade is the relationship between trade openness and the
structure of the trade balance of countries, especially developing countries such as Iraq. The research is an
attempt to study the impact of trade openness on the structure of the Iraqi trade balance during the period from
2013 to 2023, in detail using the analytical aspect of the data and stating the relationship between the different
variables to reach an answer to a basic question of the research, which focuses on knowing what is the nature of
the relationship between trade openness and the structure of the trade balance in Iraq? Does increasing trade
openness lead to improving the trade balance or vice versa? What are the other factors that affect this
relationship? The research reviewed the theoretical concepts related to trade openness and the trade balance,
analyzed data specific to Iraq, presented the results of the analysis and made the necessary recommendations.
Keywords:
Trade openness, trade balance.
Introduction:
Trade openness is one of the main factors
that affect the national economy of countries, as it
reflects the ability of this country to deal with the global
economy by opening its markets to foreign products
and services, and in return providing its products
abroad, relying on the structure of the balance of
payments that represents the balance between exports
and imports, and mainly includes the current account,
which includes the trade balance, in addition to other
accounts such as the capital account and transfers.
It is worth noting that trade openness in Iraq is a vital
issue in light of its geographical and economic position
in the region, especially after the changes that the Iraqi
economy went through after 2003 and its move
towards trade liberalization. Given the effects of trade
openness on the structure of Iraq's trade balance, it has
become an important topic that must be addressed,
due to its direct effects on the country's imports and
exports of goods and services, including changes in the
industrial structure and the energy sector, which is the
main sector dominating the Iraqi economy. One of the
results of trade openness is increased reliance on
imported goods, which may lead to an imbalance in the
balance of payments, if this is not accompanied by an
increase in Iraqi exports on the other hand, this
openness may provide Iraq with new opportunities for
foreign investment And increasing economic diversity,
which can contribute to reducing the trade deficit in the
long term if these opportunities are managed properly.
In this research, we will discuss the impact of trade
openness on the structure of the Iraqi trade balance by
analyzing how it affects exports and imports, in
addition to its impact on the trade deficit, and analyzing
some indicators of trade openness in Iraq.
Section one: Research methodology
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Importance of the research
The importance of the research is evident from the
trade openness of modern economies since the
nineties of the last century, and its pivotal role in
enhancing the economic growth of countries, including
Iraq, the subject of the research, as the research
addresses the impact of foreign trade liberalization
processes on the status of the Iraqi trade balance.
Research problem
The Iraqi economy suffers from multiple challenges,
including fluctuating oil prices and recurring trade
deficits. These challenges raise questions about the
role of trade openness in strengthening the Iraqi
economy or exacerbating its problems. What is the
nature of the relationship between trade openness and
the structure of the trade balance in Iraq? Does
increasing trade openness lead to improving the trade
balance or vice versa? What are the other factors that
affect this relationship?
Research Hypothesis
There is an indirect relationship between trade
openness and the structure of the trade balance
through its impact on economic growth due to the
freedom of import and export, which is reflected
positively if the flexibility of production is high and vice
versa.
Research Structure
In order to reach the research objectives and verify its
hypothesis, the research was divided into three
sections. The first dealt with the research
methodology, the second included the theoretical
aspect of the research variables, while the third section
dealt with the relationship between trade openness
and the Iraqi balance of payments through analyzing
the structure of the trade balance and analyzing some
indicators of trade openness.
Section Tow: Trade Openness Concept and Indicators
First: The Concept of Trade Openness
Various countries use trade openness as one of the
economic policy measures. If the trade policy is neutral
with respect to commercial activities, it is called an
open trade policy. A good trade policy has the ability to
measure the differences between neutrality and
internal orientation or export promotion. If the country
is highly export-oriented, it can be inferred that it will
not be neutral towards all its domestic industries
because this country may have incentives to produce
export-oriented goods. (PADHYAY, P. P., 2014, 2), and
views differed in defining trade openness (Rasheed, M.
K., & Sakban, R. H., 2023, 176), as the Arab Planning
Institute defines trade openness as the policy that leads
to abandoning discriminatory policies against exports
and adopting neutral policies between import and
export and reducing the value of high customs tariffs in
addition to converting quantitative restrictions into
customs tariffs and moving towards a unified customs
tariff system. (Abdulrahman Khder Aga, A., & Hussein,
J. S., 2023, 341) believes that trade openness refers to
the process of reducing restrictions imposed on
economic activity, which usually involves reducing
customs tariffs and/or removing non-tariff barriers to
trade. Trade openness is defined, according to
(Ibrahim, N. A. S., 2022, 51.) as "the policy that leads to
the abolition of discriminatory policies against exports,
the adoption of neutral policies between exports and
imports, the reduction of the value of high customs
tariffs, in addition to converting quantitative
restrictions into customs tariffs and moving towards a
unified system of customs tariffs, and ensuring them."
Trade openness is the process of easing restrictions
imposed on trade between countries, including
reducing customs tariffs, removing non-tariff barriers,
simplifying customs procedures, and liberalizing the
movement of capital. In other words, it is making trade
between countries easier and more fluid.
Second. Objectives of trade openness
There are a set of goals that any country seeks to
achieve through the policy of trade openness,
including:
•
Removing customs restrictions, which leads to
increased trade exchange between countries of the
world, and leads to linking societies and countries to
each other, in addition to expanding the scope of
international markets, increasing income, and
improving the level of welfare for various countries of
the world, especially developing countries. (Al-Khatib,
2024, 781)
•
Optimal use of economic resources, as well as
stimulating global demand. (Al-Jubouri, and Ismail,
2018, 249)
•
Working to raise the level of trade exchanges to reach
financial surpluses for countries exporting goods and
services, in addition to liberalizing trade in developing
countries. (Al-Mawla, et al., 2021, 181)
•
Increasing production by raising production efficiency
in various sectors of the economy with the aim of
achieving self-sufficiency in products, in addition to
reducing imports and working to cover the
requirements of the local market for goods at different
prices, which leads to achieving independence in global
trade. (Al-Khatib, 2024, 781)
•
Increasing income and improving the standard of living
for different countries of the world, especially
developing countries. (Al-Jubouri, and Ismail, 2018,
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International Journal of Management and Economics Fundamental (ISSN: 2771-2257)
249)
•
Stimulating global demand with the correct
exploitation of economic resources. (Al-Mawla et al.,
2021, 181)
•
Thirdly. Justifications and disadvantages of trade
openness
-Justifications of trade openness
•
That outward-oriented policies provide opportunities
for economies to use external capital for development
purposes. (Tahir, M., Haji, 2014, 130.)
•
There is a strong and important link between trade and
economic growth. Given this importance, both
developed and developing countries have begun to
focus on increasing their output (Raghutla, C, 2020, 1)
•
Foreign advanced technologies and investment goods
stimulate manufacturing activities in the local economy
and thus increase the contribution of the
manufacturing sector to GDP. (Tahir, M., Haji, 2014,
130.)
•
Trade openness increases easy export and import
opportunities while creating jobs. (Raghutla, C, 2020, 1)
•
Increased trade openness leads to higher growth rates
in poorer countries, and in fact provides evidence that
increased trade openness leads to increased regional
inequality. ) González, Rivas, M., 2007,552)
- disadvantages of trade openness
•
Trade openness contributes to In a vicious cycle of
trade deficit, balance of payments, financial instability,
debt and recession. Eleje, E. O., Eze, et,al , 2013, 4))
•
Openness to trade is usually associated with greater
fluctuations in output, so the more exposed a country
is to trade openness, the more likely it is to be exposed
to shocks coming from abroad. (Cavallo, E. A., et.al ,
2008, 106)
Fourth: Trade openness indicators Trade openness
indicators
can be classified basically into three categories: Trade
performance (or outcome measures), trade policy (or
incidence measures), and the basic variables of trade
openness. The disagreement among economists is not
limited to indicators of trade openness, but also
concerns the impact of trade openness on economic
growth and development.
1. Trade intensity ratio
The trade intensity ratio is the ratio of trade volume to
GDP. The trade intensity ratio (or dependence on
international trade) has been used as an indicator of
trade openness in many studies on the subject of trade
openness and its impact on growth and development.
However, many do not believe that the simple trade
share can be used as a strong proxy for measuring trade
openness. Using measures of countries' trade policies
instead of (or as a substitute for) the trade share in the
regression does not solve the problem; countries that
adopt free market trade policies may also adopt free
market domestic, monetary, and fiscal policies.
(Akayleh, F. A. 2014, 143
2. Economic exposure index
This index is measured by finding the ratio of total
exports and imports to GDP, and represents the value
of foreign trade from GDP, Economic exposure = The
economic exposure index shows the volume of imports
and exports divided by the gross domestic product of
that country. This index may be affected by many
internal and external factors, including the ability of the
productive sectors to produce goods and services,
including imported materials, and the country's needs
for those imported goods and services. This index also
depends on the country's ability to achieve a large or
somewhat low GDP and other external and internal
matters. (Rasheed, M. K., & Sakban, R. H. 2023 , 176)
3. Export growth rate
Export performance was represented as export growth
multiplied by the share of exports in GDP, or as export
growth, or as the ratio of exports to output, or as the
increasing export-to-output ratio .(Akayleh, F. A. 2014,
143-150)
4. Socialist economic system (as defined by Kornai
(1992)
The Sachs and Warner aggregate index considers the
disincentive effect of tariff and non-tariff barriers and
the opportunity costs of black-market activities on
trade transactions. For Sachs and Warner, the presence
of a black-market premium on exchange transactions
can have the same effects as a formal tax. (Fenira,
M.,2015, 472)
5. Import substitution
Import substitution can be defined as the process of
reducing imports and replacing them with domestic
production. There are two measures of import
substitution; the outcome measure, which is an
indicator that measures the magnitude of import
substitution, and the incidence measures, which we
will discuss later. A measure of import substitution can
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be derived as the ratio of domestically produced goods
to domestic supply. To obtain the value of domestically
produced goods, we subtract the total imported goods
from the total supply. If we denote import substitution
by IS, and the supply Total domestic by Sd, exports by
X, import penetration by MP, and imports by M, then:
(Akayleh, F. A. 2014, 143-150)
6. Collected tariff ratio
Observed data on taxes on international trade such as
export duties and import duties (collected tariffs) are
more useful than other artificial indicators of trade
barriers such as the Sachs-Warner openness index and
the dollar trade distortion index because they are
derived from observed data and allow for intermediate
cases where countries are neither fully open nor fully
closed, whereas many other artificial indicators classify
economies as either open or closed economies. The
tariff rate collected by CTR, the tariff revenue collected
by TR, and the total imports by M, then at time t we
have: (Akayleh, F. A. 2014, 143-150)
CTRt = TRt/𝑀𝑡
7. Imports to GDP ratio
This indicator is an indicator of the extent to which a
country depends on domestic demand for goods and
services abroad, and this indicator can be calculated as
follows (Rasheed, M. K., & Sakban, R. H. 2023, 176)
𝑰𝒎𝒑𝒐𝒓𝒕 𝒓𝒂𝒕𝒊𝒐: 𝑮𝑫𝑷 =
𝒕𝒉𝒆 𝒗𝒂𝒍𝒖𝒖𝒆 𝒐𝒇 𝒆𝒎𝒑𝒐𝒓𝒕
𝒕𝒉𝒆 𝒗𝒂𝒍𝒖𝒖𝒆 𝒐𝒇 𝑮𝑫𝑷
∗ 𝟏𝟎𝟎
8. Sachs and Warner Index (1995)
One of the oldest and most influential legal measures
of trade openness is the Sachs and Warner Index
(1995). It is a binary indicator that classifies a country
as closed if it meets at least one of five criteria related
to tariff rates, non-tariff trade barriers, socialist
governance in trade relations, and the difference
between black market and official exchange rates.
When used in growth regressions, the indicator mostly
indicates a positive relationship between Openness
and trade. (Gräbner, C., et.al, 2021 , 93
(
9. Exports to GDP ratio
Many countries derive a large percentage of
their national income from the production of a single
primary export commodity or a small number of
commodities, as increasing the percentage of exports
to GDP to (60%) or more is an indicator of economic
openness, and can be calculated according to the
following equation: (Al-
Sawa’i, 2006, p. 59) Exports
ratio: GDP = 100% of GDP
∗
100 Moreover, it is known
that Iraq depends heavily on exports. (Rasheed, M. K.,
& Sakban, R. H. 2023, 176)
𝑬𝒙𝒑𝒐𝒓𝒕 𝒓𝒂𝒕𝒊𝒐: 𝑮𝑫𝑷 =
𝒕𝒉𝒆 𝒗𝒂𝒍𝒖𝒖𝒆 𝒐𝒇 𝒆𝒎𝒑𝒐𝒓𝒕
𝒕𝒉𝒆 𝒗𝒂𝒍𝒖𝒖𝒆 𝒐𝒇 𝑮𝑫𝑷
∗
Fifth // The relationship between trade openness
and the trade balance
As we mentioned, the trade balance is the difference
between exports and imports of goods and services,
and takes the form of a surplus if exports exceed
imports or a deficit when imports are greater than
exports, and the trade balance is one of the main
components of the balance of payments and a key
indicator of the health of the country, and its
fluctuations are a source of great concern, especially
for developing countries that face a chronic trade
deficit. (Keho, Y., 2021, 1), The impact of the trend
towards open trade policy on per capita income growth
is one of the most controversial issues as there is a
tendency to improve imports more than exports, which
leads to a trade deficit and thus contributes to lower
economic growth in the future. (Parikh, A., & Stirbu, C.,
2004, 1.) Some studies have shown that in the period
1972-1997, trade liberalization worsened the trade
balance of developing countries and caused both
imports and exports to grow faster, but import growth
was faster than export growth for a group of 22
developing countries. Some have suggested that trade
liberalization promotes growth in most cases, but
growth itself has a negative impact on the trade
balance and adverse terms of trade. UNCTAD (1999)
studied the impact of trade liberalization on the trade
balance of 15 developing countries during the period
1970-1995 and found a significant negative
relationship.) Allaro, H. B., 2012, 75. The United Nations
Conference on Trade and
Development has also documented earlier that: If trade
openness is implemented inappropriately in countries
that are not prepared or able to adapt or that face
unfavorable conditions, it may contribute to a vicious
circle of trade deficits. The balance of payments,
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International Journal of Management and Economics Fundamental (ISSN: 2771-2257)
financial instability, debt and recession. (Eleje, E. O.,
et.al, 2013, 1)
The third section:
Analysis of the relationship between trade openness
and trade deficit in Iraq
The issue of the relationship between trade
openness and trade deficit in Iraq is one of the
complex and controversial economic issues, as
some believe that increasing trade openness
inevitably leads to an increase in the trade deficit,
while others believe that the matter is not that
simple and that the factors affecting the trade deficit
are multiple and intertwined.
First // The Iraqi trade balance
The Iraqi trade balance depends heavily on oil
revenues, which makes the economy vulnerable to
fluctuations in global oil prices, and the ratio of
foreign exchange reserves to GDP has witnessed
significant
fluctuations
during
the
period,
indicating the need for more sustainable economic
policies to enhance economic stability. The Iraqi
government must take measures to diversify
sources of income and reduce dependence on oil, in
addition to strengthening financial and monetary
management to achieve economic stability in the
long term
Table (1) Imports, exports and trade balance position
Source:
Prepared based on:
- Central Bank of Iraq, Directorate of Statistics and
Research, Annual Statistical Bulletins (2014-2023)
- Central Bank of Iraq, Directorate of Statistics and
Research, Iraqi Economic Report (2014-2023)
- Ministry of Planning, Directorate of Statistics and
Research, Statistical Group, various years.
According to Table (1), exports fluctuated significantly
during the study period, as they rose significantly in
some years and decreased in other years. The highest
level of exports was recorded in 2022, when it reached
more than 118 billion dollars, while the lowest level
was recorded in 2016, at about 34 billion dinars. The
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fluctuation in the volume of exports is due to several
factors, including fluctuations in oil prices, changes in
fiscal and monetary policy, and geopolitical events that
clearly affected the Iraqi economy. Imports also
witnessed fluctuations, as they rose significantly in
some years and decreased in other years. The highest
level of imports was recorded in 2023, when it reached
more than 67 billion dollars, while the lowest level was
recorded in 2016, at about 29 billion dinars. As for the
Iraqi trade balance, it did not record a net deficit except
in 2014, at about 4 billion dollars, due to the decline in
oil exports and their prices, while other years recorded
varying trade surpluses. The highest in 2022, at about $
71 billion.
Second // GDP indicators
Table (2) aims to display the development of trade
openness indicators in Iraq during the period from 2013
to 2023. These indicators provide a clear picture of the
size and trends of Iraqi foreign trade, and contribute to
a deeper understanding of the Iraqi economy and its
trade relations with the outside world. According to
Table (2), the rate of export growth witnessed
significant fluctuations during the period, as it recorded
sharp declines in some years, and noticeable increases
in other years. This fluctuation reflects the impact of
Iraqi exports on global economic factors and oil price
fluctuations. The highest growth rate of exports was in
2017, at more than 40%, while the lowest growth rate
was recorded in 2014, at more than -131%, which
coincides with the outbreak of the Corona pandemic
and its negative impact on the global economy. Exports
as a percentage of GDP witnessed a general increase
during the period, the highest of which was in 2022, at
about 118 billion dinars, while the lowest was recorded
in 2016, at more than 118, indicating the increasing
importance of exports in the Iraqi economy. However,
this percentage remains lower than many oil-exporting
countries, indicating the heavy dependence of the Iraqi
economy on oil revenues. The import growth rate also
recorded significant fluctuations, but in general it was
less volatile than the export growth rate. This reflects
the increase in local demand for imported goods and
services, which are often linked to reconstruction and
development projects. Imports as a percentage of GDP
witnessed a significant increase during the period,
indicating an increased reliance on imports to meet the
needs of the Iraqi economy. This reflects the weakness
of local production in many sectors, and Iraq's
dependence on imports of consumer goods and means
of production.
Table (2) Some indicators of trade openness in Iraq for the period (2013-2023)
Source:
Prepared based on:
- Central Bank of Iraq, Directorate of Statistics and
Research, Annual Statistical Bulletins (2014-2023)
Export
growth
rate
%
Imports\
GDP
%
Imports
(million $)
Exports\
GDP
%
Exports
(million$)
GDP
years
-
23.14
50,446.9
41.18
89,767.9
218,002.47
2013
(131.48)
19.26
45,200.1
16.53
38,780.8
234,637.67
2014
24.44
17.87
40,808.5
22.47
51,327.7
228,415.65
2015
(50.04)
17.44
29,077.0
20.52
34,208.3
166,743.55
2016
40.57
17.19
32,185.6
30.74
57,559.1
187,217.66
2017
33.35
17.10
38,875.7
37.99
86,359.9
227,367.46
2018
(5.85)
21.15
49,417.6
34.92
81,585.2
233,636.09
2019
(74.22)
22.62
40,927.3
25.89
46,829.0
180,898.79
2020
35.92
16.56
34,721.1
34.85
73,083.8
209,691.94
2021
38.09
16.37
46,914.8
41.18
118,044.8
286,640.34
2022
(1.81)
26.81
67251.2
46.22
115951.7
250,842.78
2023
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- Central Bank of Iraq, Directorate of Statistics and
Research, Iraqi Economic Report (2014-2023)
- Ministry of Planning, Directorate of Statistics and
Research, Statistical Group, various years.
This fluctuation indicates that there are multiple
economic factors that affect this relationship, and
these factors may change from one year to another,
and the higher this ratio is, the more capable the
country is of covering its imports and dealing with
external economic shocks, and there is no clear direct
relationship between the value of exports and the
percentage of reserves, and the reason for the
fluctuation is due to oil prices, as when the country
relies heavily on oil exports, fluctuations in its global
prices will directly affect the value of exports.
CONCLUSIONS
By analyzing the development of trade openness,
based on the trade-to-GDP ratio index to measure the
degree of openness, the development of both exports
and imports, and analyzing the impact of trade
openness on the structure of the trade balance. It is
clear that trade openness has had a positive impact on
the growth of exports and imports, and had the
greatest impact on imports, which led to a
deterioration in the trade balance. It requested to take
on the task of finding the best ways to integrate into
the international market.
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