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637
DYNAMICS AND DEVELOPMENT FACTORS OF AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION
IN THE REPUBLIC OF KARAKALPAKSTAN
assistant
Dilnoza Ruzieva
student Salauat Sarsenbaev
Karakalpak State University
Abstract:
This paper analyzes the dynamics of agricultural production in the Republic of
Karakalpakstan between 2019 and 2024. Using official statistical data, the study evaluates
changes in gross agricultural output, crop yields, and livestock development. The findings reveal
a significant increase in agricultural production, from 2.5 million tons in 2019 to 8.6 million tons
in 2024, highlighting the impact of state reforms, investment flows, and technological
modernization. However, persistent challenges such as water scarcity, soil salinization, and
limited financial resources remain crucial constraints. Comparative insights from neighboring
countries demonstrate the potential of adopting modern irrigation and farm management systems.
Based on the analysis, practical recommendations are proposed to ensure sustainable agricultural
growth in Karakalpakstan.
Keywords:
Karakalpakstan, agriculture, production dynamics, investment, sustainability, food
security.
Agriculture is one of the most vital sectors of Uzbekistan’s economy, ensuring food security,
employment, and regional development. Within this context, the Republic of Karakalpakstan
plays a strategic role due to its geographic location and natural resource base. Despite severe
ecological challenges—such as the Aral Sea crisis, water scarcity, and land degradation—the
region remains a major contributor to national agricultural output [1].
Recent reforms in Uzbekistan have prioritized agricultural modernization, crop diversification,
and the introduction of water-saving technologies. These measures have contributed to a
remarkable rise in agricultural production in Karakalpakstan. Statistical data show that gross
agricultural output increased from 2.5 million tons in 2019 to 8.6 million tons in 2024,
representing more than a threefold growth [2]. This growth underscores the resilience of local
farmers as well as the importance of state policies and investment initiatives.
Nevertheless, Karakalpakstan’s agricultural economy continues to face significant constraints.
The reliance on the Amu Darya River for irrigation exposes the region to water shortages, while
high levels of soil salinity reduce crop productivity. Limited access to finance and outdated
infrastructure further exacerbate these challenges [3]. Therefore, an in-depth analysis of
production dynamics is essential to identify both growth opportunities and long-term risks.
This study aims to (i) assess the dynamics of agricultural production in Karakalpakstan from
2019 to 2024, (ii) analyze the main factors contributing to growth, and (iii) develop
recommendations for sustainable agricultural development.
Table 1. Gross Agricultural Production in Karakalpakstan, 2019–2024
Year
Output (mln tons)
Growth Rate (%)
2019
2.5
–
2020
2.7
+8.0
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Year
Output (mln tons)
Growth Rate (%)
2021
3.2
+18.5
2022
4.2
+31.3
2023
7.0
+66.7
2024
8.6
+22.9
Figure 1. Gross Agricultural Output in Karakalpakstan (2019–2024)
The data demonstrate a clear upward trend in agricultural production in Karakalpakstan over the
past six years. Total output increased from
2.5 million tons in 2019 to 8.6 million tons in 2024
,
representing more than a threefold growth. The most dramatic rise occurred in 2023, when
production jumped by
66.7%
compared to the previous year. This surge coincided with large-
scale government investment programs and favorable climatic conditions [1].
Such growth reflects the positive effects of nationwide reforms in agriculture, including crop
diversification, mechanization, and state subsidies for water-saving technologies. It also indicates
the increasing capacity of local farmers to adapt to challenging environmental conditions [2].
However, the sustainability of this growth remains uncertain given the region’s ecological
vulnerability.
Beyond overall production, the structure of cultivated crops has shifted toward greater
diversification. Wheat continues to occupy the largest share of cultivated land, but significant
increases are observed in vegetables, melons, and fodder crops. These changes are aligned with
national strategies to improve food security and meet rising domestic demand [3].
Wheat:
modest but steady increase in planted area (+8.3% between 2020 and 2024).
Vegetables:
rapid growth (+53.3%), reflecting demand for nutritional products.
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Melons:
strong expansion (+61.1%), partly driven by export potential.
Fodder crops:
notable increase (+30%), supporting livestock development.
This trend demonstrates that Karakalpakstan is gradually moving away from mono-cropping
toward more resilient and diversified farming systems, which is crucial for both economic
stability and food security [4].
Livestock farming remains a vital pillar of Karakalpakstan’s agricultural sector. Cattle, sheep,
and goat populations have steadily increased, while milk production has risen by more than 34%
during the period 2020–2024. This indicates improvements in both animal productivity and the
feed supply base [5].
Nevertheless, the livestock sector still faces challenges such as insufficient fodder resources,
outdated veterinary services, and vulnerability to climate-induced pasture degradation [6].
Addressing these constraints is essential to secure the long-term growth of animal husbandry.
Despite remarkable growth in agricultural production between 2019 and 2024, Karakalpakstan’s
agricultural economy faces persistent structural and environmental challenges:
Water scarcity:
Agriculture in Karakalpakstan depends almost entirely on irrigation
from the Amu Darya River. Declining water flows and high competition from upstream users
create chronic shortages that constrain crop yields and limit future expansion [7].
Soil degradation and salinity:
Approximately half of irrigated land suffers from
medium to high salinity, reducing productivity and increasing reclamation costs [8].
Outdated infrastructure:
Irrigation canals, drainage systems, and agricultural
machinery are largely obsolete, leading to inefficiencies in water use and crop management [9].
Financial limitations:
Smallholder farmers face difficulties in accessing affordable
credit and investment resources, preventing modernization and innovation [10].
Ecological vulnerability:
The aftermath of the Aral Sea disaster continues to affect
Karakalpakstan, with desertification, dust storms, and biodiversity loss threatening rural
livelihoods [11].
Opportunities:
Expanding crop diversification into high-value vegetables and melons.
Wider adoption of drip irrigation and water-saving technologies.
Strengthening agricultural cooperatives and producer organizations.
Increased investment support through public-private partnerships and international
donor projects.
Comparative insights from other regions demonstrate pathways for Karakalpakstan’s sustainable
agricultural development:
Kazakhstan:
Adoption of precision agriculture and drip irrigation has increased water-
use efficiency and crop yields in arid regions [12].
Turkmenistan:
Investments in greenhouse farming and diversification from cotton into
fruits and vegetables have reduced dependence on traditional cropping patterns [13].
European Union (EU):
The Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) illustrates how
subsidies, environmental incentives, and rural development programs can enhance farm incomes
while promoting ecological sustainability [14].
These experiences suggest that Karakalpakstan should:
1.
Scale up water-saving technologies.
2.
Provide targeted subsidies for smallholders adopting modern technologies.
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3.
Encourage international cooperation for technology transfer.
4.
Integrate environmental sustainability with economic growth objectives.
The analysis of agricultural production dynamics in Karakalpakstan from 2019 to 2024 shows a
more than threefold increase
in gross output, driven by crop diversification, investment
inflows, and state-led reforms. Wheat production remains dominant, but vegetables and melons
are expanding rapidly, while livestock production shows steady improvement.
However, water scarcity, soil salinization, outdated infrastructure, and financial constraints
continue to pose major risks to the sustainability of agricultural growth.
Key Recommendations:
Water management:
Prioritize the rehabilitation of irrigation and drainage
infrastructure, and expand the use of drip and sprinkler irrigation.
Land improvement:
Implement soil reclamation projects and introduce crop rotation
systems to combat salinity.
Investment support:
Provide low-interest credit lines and subsidies to encourage the
modernization of farms.
Technology adoption:
Expand the use of digital agriculture, improved seed varieties,
and mechanization.
International cooperation:
Build partnerships with Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, and
EU institutions to adopt proven best practices.
By implementing these measures, Karakalpakstan can ensure sustainable agricultural
development, improve food security, and enhance the well-being of rural communities.
References
1. State Committee of the Republic of Uzbekistan on Statistics.
Agricultural output of
Karakalpakstan, 2019–2024
. Tashkent: Stat.uz, 2024.
2. Global Green Growth Institute (GGGI).
Agriculture Sector in Uzbekistan and
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3. Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO).
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4. Orolboyev, I., & Nazarova, D. “Water Scarcity and Agricultural Sustainability in
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The Common Agricultural Policy at a Glance
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Volume 15 Issue 08, August 2025
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12. Suleimenov, M., & Akshalov, K. “Adoption of Precision Agriculture in Kazakhstan.”
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