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GEOPOLITICAL SHIFTS IN POST-SOVIET SPACE:
THE CASE OF THE SOUTH CAUCASUS
Olimjonov Oyatbek
2nd-year student, Faculty of International Relations
University of World Economy and Diplomacy
Abstract:
This article analyzes the changing geopolitical landscape in the
South Caucasus following the decline of Russian influence in the post-Soviet space.
The 2020 Second Karabakh War, Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, and the
recent developments in Nagorno-Karabakh have significantly altered Moscow's
image as a regional guarantor. Azerbaijan's growing assertiveness, Turkey's active
role, and Western engagement in the region reflect a multipolar shift. By reviewing
recent developments and analyzing regional power dynamics, this article argues that
the South Caucasus is undergoing a fundamental transformation away from the
traditional Russian-centric order.
Keywords:
South Caucasus, Russia, Karabakh conflict, post-Soviet, Ukraine
war, Turkey, Azerbaijan, geopolitics
Аннотация:
В данной статье анализируется изменение геополитического
ландшафта на Южном Кавказе после ослабления российского влияния на
постсоветском пространстве. Вторая карабахская война 2020 года, вторжение
России на Украину в 2022 году и недавние события в Нагорном Карабахе
существенно изменили имидж Москвы как регионального гаранта. Растущая
самоуверенность Азербайджана, активная роль Турции и участие Запада в
регионе отражают многополярный сдвиг. На основе обзора последних
событий и анализа динамики региональной власти в этой статье утверждается,
что Южный Кавказ претерпевает фундаментальную трансформацию, уходя от
традиционного российско
-
ориентированного порядка.
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Ключевые слова:
Южный Кавказ, Россия, Карабахский
конфликт, постсоветское пространство, война на Украине,
Турция, Азербайджан, геополитика
Annotatsiya:
Ushbu maqola postsovet hududida Rossiya
ta'sirining zaiflashuvidan so'ng Janubiy Kavkazdagi geosiyosiy landshaftning
o'zgarishini tahlil qiladi. 2020 yilgi ikkinchi Qarabax urushi, 2022 yilda Rossiyaning
Ukrainaga bostirib kirishi va tog'li Qorabog'dagi so'nggi voqealar Moskvaning
mintaqaviy kafil sifatidagi imidjini sezilarli darajada o'zgartirdi. Ozarbayjonning
o'ziga bo'lgan ishonchi ortib borayotgani, Turkiyaning faol roli va G'arbning
mintaqadagi ishtiroki ko'p qutbli siljishni aks ettiradi. So'nggi voqealarni ko'rib
chiqish va mintaqaviy hokimiyat dinamikasini tahlil qilish asosida ushbu maqola
Janubiy Kavkaz an'anaviy ruslarga yo'naltirilgan tartibdan uzoqlashib, tub
o'zgarishlarni boshdan kechirayotganini ta'kidlaydi.
Kalit so'zlar:
Janubiy Kavkaz, Rossiya, Qorabog ' mojarosi, postsovet makoni,
Ukrainadagi urush, Turkiya, Ozarbayjon, geosiyosat
The South Caucasus, long considered a strategic backyard of the Russian
Federation, is undergoing a profound geopolitical transformation. The second
Nagorno-
Karabakh war (2020) and Azerbaijan’s decisive military operation in 2023
have further destabilized the post-Soviet regional balance. For decades, Russia
functioned as the principal arbiter in the South Caucasus, leveraging historical,
military, and political ties to maintain influence over Armenia, Azerbaijan, and
Georgia. However, Moscow’s passive stan
ce during recent crises, its overstretch in
Ukraine, and the erosion of trust from traditional allies like Armenia have all
contributed to a visible decline in its regional dominance. Simultaneously, other
actors
—
including Turkey, the European Union, and the United States
—
have
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become more active in the region. Turkey has deepened its strategic
ties with Azerbaijan, the EU has hosted mediation efforts, and the
U.S. has emerged as a diplomatic player in resolving Armenia-
Azerbaijan tensions. This article argues that Russia’s decli
ning
influence in the South Caucasus marks a systemic shift in the region’s geopolitical
architecture, opening the door to a multipolar environment where no single actor can
impose unilateral control.
Methodology
This article employs a qualitative, comparative, and discursive analytical
approach. It examines how narratives, policy positions, and geopolitical strategies
reflect the shifting power dynamics in the South Caucasus. Drawing on policy
papers, think-tank publications, and expert commentaries, the study analyzes
Russia’s declining leverage, the rise of Turkish influence, and increasing Western
engagement. Scenario-based evaluation is used to illustrate potential trajectories of
regional transformation. The article is grounded in the theoretical framework of
neoclassical realism. This school of thought explains foreign policy behavior as a
result of both systemic pressures
—
such as the distribution of power in the
international system
—
and domestic factors, including leadership perceptions and
institutional capacities. In the context of the South Caucasus, neoclassical realism
helps explain why regional states like Armenia and Azerbaijan have recalibrated
their foreign policy preferences in response to shifts in external support and power
alignments. It also sheds light on Russia's weakening position as a hegemon and
Turkey's opportunistic assertiveness.
RUSSIA’S DECLINING INFLUENCE IN THE SOUTH CAUCASUS
Russia’s longstanding image as the dominant security guarantor in the South
Caucasus has been severely undermined in recent years. The 2020 Nagorno-
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Karabakh war marked a pivotal turning point: despite its military
alliance with Armenia through the Collective Security Treaty
Organization (CSTO), Moscow refused to intervene on Yerevan’s
behalf. This inaction raised serious doubts about Russia’s credibil
ity
among its regional allies. The Kremlin’s geopolitical overstretch—
exacerbated by
its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022
—
has significantly constrained its capacity
to manage peripheral conflicts. Russia has diverted diplomatic and military
resources to the Ukrainian front, leaving its traditional zones of influence, including
the South Caucasus, increasingly unattended. Armenia’s frustration became even
more visible in 2023, when Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan openly criticized
Russia’s passivity and
began pivoting toward Western institutions. Yerevan hosted
joint military exercises with the United States and deepened its dialogue with the
European Union, including talks on military cooperation and economic integration.
These moves signaled not only disillusionment with the CSTO but also a desire to
redefine Armenia’s geopolitical orientation away from the Kremlin’s orbit (Carnegie
Endowment, 2023). Moreover, Russia’s so
-
called “peacekeeping” mission in
Nagorno-
Karabakh failed to prevent Azerbaijan’s 2
023 offensive, further tarnishing
Moscow’s image as a neutral guarantor. The withdrawal of Russian forces from the
Lachin corridor in late 2023 was interpreted by many observers as symbolic of
Moscow’s retreat, both literal and figurative, from the region
(Chatham House,
2023). In essence, Russia’s weakening grip is not just a result of external distractions
like Ukraine but also of a growing perception among South Caucasus states that
Moscow can no longer deliver security, leverage diplomatic solutions, or project soft
power as it once did.
TURKEY’S ASCENDANCE IN THE SOUTH CAUCASUS
In contrast to Russia’s strategic withdrawal, Turkey has emerged as a powerful
and proactive actor in the South Caucasus. Ankara's close alliance with
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Azerbaijan
—framed under the slogan “One nation, two states”—
has
evolved from cultural and linguistic solidarity into a robust military
and geopolitical partnership. The 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war was
a watershed moment for Turkish influence. Turkey provided
Azerbaijan with extensive military support, including Bayraktar TB2 drones,
military advisors, and real-time battlefield intelligence. These contributions were
decisive in Azerbaijan’s swift victory over Armenian forces, cementing Turkey’s
role as a co-architect of the new regional order (PONARS Eurasia, 2022). Following
the conflict, Turkey's role expanded beyond military engagement. Ankara
participated in trilateral talks with Russia and Azerbaijan on post-war arrangements
and launched several joint infrastructure and transportation projects, such as the
Zangezur corridor initiative, which aims to connect Turkey to the Caspian region
through southern Armenia. This initiative reflects Turkey’s broader ambition to
position itself as a regional economic bridge between Europe and Central Asia
(Eurasianet, 2022). Moreover, Turkey’s influence is bolstered by its soft power.
Turkish universities, media, and religious organizations have expanded their
presence in Azerbaijan and Georgia, promoting Ankara’s image as
both a modern
Muslim state and a successful post-Ottoman regional power. In short, Turkey has
adeptly capitalized on the geopolitical vacuum left by Russia’s decline, asserting
itself not only as Azerbaijan’s indispensable ally but also as a long
-term stakeholder
in the South Caucasus’ political future.
AZERBAIJAN’S ASSERTIVENESS AND REGIONAL SELF
-
CONFIDENCE
Azerbaijan has emerged from the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War as a
confident and assertive regional actor, determined to reshape the South Caucasus
order on its own terms. Backed by substantial energy revenues and a revitalized
military, Baku has increasingly pursued an independent foreign policy that reflects
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its national interests, often at odds with Russia’s or the West’s
expectations. The 2020 war not only restored Azerbaijan’s territorial
control over much of Nagorno-Karabakh, but also fundamentally
shifted the psychological and political dynamic in the region. For
decades, Armenia had maintained the upper hand in the conflict. However,
Azerbaijan’s rapid and decisive military campaign, aided by Turkish support,
overturned that balance and positioned Baku as the dominant force in the regional
security equati
on (RAND Corporation, 2022). Azerbaijan’s confidence was further
evident in its 2023 operation to retake the remaining Armenian-controlled areas of
Nagorno-
Karabakh. Despite Russian “peacekeepers” being stationed in the region,
Azerbaijan executed the campaign with minimal resistance, and tens of thousands
of ethnic Armenians fled within days. Moscow’s inability—
or unwillingness
—
to
intervene underscored Baku’s calculation that Russia would not risk escalation
(Reuters, 2023). Diplomatically, Azerbaijan has maneuvered skillfully. President
Ilham Aliyev has deepened ties with Ankara, Beijing, and even Tel Aviv, while
maintaining pragmatic energy cooperation with the European Union. Baku’s ability
to maintain working relations with multiple rival blocs reflects a strategic balancing
act
—
allowing Azerbaijan to maximize autonomy while avoiding dependency on any
single power (Atlantic Council, 2023). Azerbaijan’s assertiveness is not merely
military; it reflects a broader vision of regional leadership grounded in national
pride, post-Soviet sovereignty, and geopolitical adaptability.
WESTERN INVOLVEMENT AND THE EROSION OF MOSCOW’S
MONOPOLY
The post-war diplomatic landscape of the South Caucasus has increasingly
featured Western actors seeking to mediate peace and shape the region’s future.
While Russia long held a near-monopoly on conflict resolution between Armenia
and Azerbaijan, recent developments have highlighted a growing diversification of
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mediators
—
most notably the European Union and the United States.
In 2022 and 2023, Brussels hosted multiple high-level summits
between Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijani
President Ilham Aliyev, under the auspices of European Council
President Charles Michel. These meetings signaled the EU’s desire to present itself
as a neutral, rule-based alternative to Moscow's traditionally coercive mediation
style (Carnegie Endowment, 2023). The United States has also become increasingly
active. In 2023, Secretary of State Antony Blinken facilitated direct talks between
the Armenian and Azerbaijani foreign ministers in Washington, pushing for a
sustainable peace deal. This level of engagement was unprecedented in the history
of U.S. involvement in th
e region, and reflected Washington’s intention to limit
Russian and Iranian influence while stabilizing the European periphery (Washington
Post, 2023). Although these Western initiatives have not yet resulted in a
comprehensive peace treaty, their symbolic importance cannot be overstated. They
mark a challenge to Moscow’s status as the default broker of negotiations and offer
Armenia and Azerbaijan alternatives in the diplomatic arena. More broadly, the
involvement of liberal-democratic powers introduces new norms into the South
Caucasus peace process
—
emphasizing transparency, legal frameworks, and human
rights. These contrast sharply with the transactional, interest-driven diplomacy
historically practiced by Russia. For Yerevan in particular, the shift toward Western
formats reflects deeper political realignments: Armenia’s democratic credentials,
resentment toward Russian inaction, and aspirations for closer integration with the
European political space have all contributed to a recalibrated foreign policy vision
(Chatham House, 2023).
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FUTURE SCENARIOS: WHAT NEXT FOR THE
SOUTH CAUCASUS?
The shifting dynamics in the South Caucasus raise fundamental
questions about the region’s future geopolitical alignment. With
Russia in retreat, Turkey asserting itself, and Western actors engaging
diplomatically, the regional order is no longer unipolar or static. Several plausible
scenarios emerge, each with its own set of implications.
Scenario 1:
A multipolar balance of power. This is the most likely trajectory,
where Turkey, the EU, the U.S., and possibly China play overlapping but
competitive roles in the region. While Azerbaijan and Armenia retain greater
agency, their room to maneuver will depend on how well they balance competing
interests without becoming overly dependent on a single power. In this scenario,
Russia remains present but marginalized
—
a background player unable to dictate
terms.
Scenario 2:
A Turkey-
centric regional bloc. Given Turkey’s military and
cultural proximity to Azerbaijan and growing ties with Central Asian states, a Turkic
regional framework may evolve. The Zangezur corridor, if fully realized, could
physically and symbolically bind Turkey to the Caspian region, giving Ankara even
more strategic leverage. However, such a model may alienate Armenia and provoke
new tensions unless balanced by broader inclusion.
Scenario 3:
Resurgence of Russia. Though currently in decline, Russia’s long
-
term return cannot be ruled out. A ceasefire breakdown, leadership change in
Moscow, or Western fatigue with the region could create openings for the Kremlin
to reassert itself. This scenario would most likely favor a restoration of Moscow-led
“managed instability,” undermining Western
-led peacebuilding initiatives.
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Scenario 4:
Western institutional integration. Particularly for
Armenia, deeper alignment with Western structures
—
through trade,
defense cooperation, and democracy support
—
may solidify. This
would mark a historic break from Russia’s orbit and could reshape
the political values and security doctrines of the region. However, such a shift would
face resistance from pro-Russian segments and regional spoilers like Iran.
These potential futures suggest that the South Caucasus is at a geopolitical
crossroads. The final trajectory will depend not only on the actions of great powers
but also on the domestic resilience, leadership choices, and diplomatic flexibility of
the regional states themselves.
CONCLUSION
The geopolitical landscape of the South Caucasus is undergoing a fundamental
reconfiguration. Russia’s traditional role as a regional hegemon is eroding rapidly,
undermined by its military overreach in Ukraine, its failure to fulfill security
commitments to allies like Armenia, and its inability to adapt to the new realities on
the ground. Meanwhile, Turkey’s strategic ascent, Azerbaijan’s military and
diplomatic assertiveness, and the active involvement of Western powers have
reshaped the regional equation. The emergence of multiple diplomatic tracks
—
outside Moscow’s influence—
demonstrates that the South Caucasus is no longer a
Russian-led security space, but an arena of contested influence and shifting
alignments. These developments point to a broader trend in the post-Soviet sphere:
the fragmentation of the Kremlin’s informal empire and the rise of multipolarity. For
the countries of the South Caucasus, this transition offers both opportunity and risk.
Greater autonomy in foreign policy can be a vehicle for national empowerment, but
it also demands careful strategic navigation in a crowded geopolitical field.
Ultimately, the decline of Russia’s dominance is not merely the story of one actor’s
failure, but a reflection of deeper systemic change. The future of the South Caucasus
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will be shaped not just by external powers, but by the capacity of
regional states to assert their sovereignty, build credible institutions,
and chart their own course in an increasingly complex international
order.
REFERENCES:
1.
Atlantic Council. 2023. Russia’s Waning Influence in the South
Caucasus.
https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs
2.
Caspian Policy Center. 2022. Nagorno-Karabakh: Shifting Power
3.
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. 2023. Armenia’s
Strategic Shift from Moscow to Brussels.
4.
Chatham House. 2023. Russia’s Retreat from the South Caucasus:
5.
Eurasianet. 2022. Turkey’s Growing Influence in the Caucasus After
the Karabakh War.
6.
PONARS Eurasia. 2022. Turkey’s Strategic Calculus in the Caucasus.
7.
RAND Corporation. 2022. The Collapse of CSTO Credibility in the
Post-Soviet Space.
8.
Reuters. 2023. Karabakh Armenians Flee en Masse as Azerbaijan
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https://www.washingtonpost.com
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