“MILLIY IQTISODIYOTNI ISLOH QILISH VA BARQAROR RIVOJLANTIRISH ISTIQBOLLARI”
mavzusida xalqaro ilmiy-amaliy konferensiyasi
373
5.
Статья на тему «ЦИФРОВЫЕ ТЕХНОЛОГИИ В УЗБЕКИСТАНЕ 2024»: ОБЗОРНЫЙ
ОТЧЕТ DATAREPORTAL
6.
Miller, T. (2020). Blockchain and Its Potential in Tax Compliance. Tax Technology
Journal, 34(4), 88-101.
7.
Brown, A., & Green, D. (2019). Artificial Intelligence in Tax Administration: A
Comprehensive Review. Data Science and Analytics, 62(1), 34-50.
8.
Nguyen, P. (2023). Cybersecurity Risks in Digital Tax Systems. Journal of Financial
Security, 77(2), 112-125.
ANALYSIS AND FORECASTS OF THE MAIN ECONOMIC INDICATORS OF THE
REPUBLIC OF UZBEKISTAN USING GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM MODELS
Rasulov Jamshid Shokir o
’gli
TSUE, Researcher
Abstract.
In this thesis, the analysis of the main indicators of the Republic of
Uzbekistan with the help of general equilibrium models, which are one of the
modern tools that are widely used in economic analysis, accounts of model
parameters that affect economic growth factors and during growth we perform an
analysis of economic growth, identifying the shocks affecting the model.
After the 2019 pandemic, the economy of the Republic of Uzbekistan has
been showing a stable economic growth rate of around 6%. Nevertheless, it is
important to identify the various positive and negative changes that occur
around the economic growth and give them appropriate descriptions and
conclusions.
In this thesis, we evaluate the analysis of several economic indicators of the
Republic of Uzbekistan using DSGE models.
Figure 1: Economic growth rate of Uzbekistan (%)
* Author's development based on the information of the Statistics Committee
0
2
4
6
8
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
GDP growth rate of Uzbekistan 2010-2023 (%)
2013-2023 yillarda O'zbekiston Respublikasi YaIM dinamikasi(%)
“MILLIY IQTISODIYOTNI ISLOH QILISH VA BARQAROR RIVOJLANTIRISH ISTIQBOLLARI”
mavzusida xalqaro ilmiy-amaliy konferensiyasi
374
It can be seen from this dynamics that the economic growth has decreased
slightly in the last two years. The reasons for this may be an increase in the state's
external debt, a decrease in investment activity, inflation or other similar
economic shocks. However, economic analysis requires specific numbers or
statistics. Therefore, we will continue the analysis with the help of numbers.
Table 1
Indicators necessary for economic growth (Russian model) [1]
National welfare: 1. The size of the created material GDP. %
Inflation:
1. Consumer price index compared to the previous December
Investment
activity:
1. Fixed capital investment per capita, USD
2. Investments in fixed assets, USD
Labour market
and poverty
level
1. Average monthly nominal salary, USD
2. Real salary indicator, %
3. Poverty rate, %
4. Savings ratio
5. Gini coefficient
The state of the
main economic
sectors:
1. Production of agricultural products per capita, USD
2. Volume of agricultural products, million USD
3. Industrial production indicators, %
4. Indicator of production industry products, %
5. Volume of completed constructions, million USD
6. The number of houses commissioned per million square meters
7. Volume of cargo transported by all types of trucks per billion
kilometers
8. Passenger turnover in all types of transport for every billion
kilometers;
At the beginning of the analysis, we clarify which factors we will use in our
economic evaluation.
Table 2
Description of factors in the analysis
Because the DSGE model is built on theory, we use the new Keynesian model
of inflation, interest rate, and output gap. In our analysis, we use quarterly data
of the Republic of Uzbekistan between 2010 and 2023. From the parameter
values of the model equations, we determine the following:
“MILLIY IQTISODIYOTNI ISLOH QILISH VA BARQAROR RIVOJLANTIRISH ISTIQBOLLARI”
mavzusida xalqaro ilmiy-amaliy konferensiyasi
375
Table 3
Calculations of parameters
*Author’s accounting using Stata 18 software.
According to our initial calculation, we got the value of the above parameter.
Then
β
= 0.96 (constant coefficient),
κ
= 0.074. The slope of the Phillips curve
from our account book has a positive result. The coefficient before the price level
in the "r" equation was equal to
1/ β
= 1.063. This means that an increase in
inflation by 1 unit also increases the interest rate by a value slightly more than 1.
Table 4
Policy matrix
*Au
thor’s accounting using Stata 18 software.
In the next step, we calculate the policy matrix. The following matrix shows
the reaction of the state variable to an increase of one unit.
The interpretation of the obtained result showed that, based on quarterly
data of the Republic of Uzbekistan, an increase in the state parameter "u
(deviation of the main rate from its equilibrium value)" by one unit reduces the
value of inflation above the short-term equilibrium value by 0.847 units.
Appropriate values of this parameter reduce the output gap by 3.111 units and
increase the interest rate by 0.117 units. A one-unit change in the state
parameter "g (production volume deviation from its equilibrium point)" causes
the inflation rate to exceed the short-term equilibrium state. This, in turn, leads
to a disruption in production and an increase in the interest rate.
“MILLIY IQTISODIYOTNI ISLOH QILISH VA BARQAROR RIVOJLANTIRISH ISTIQBOLLARI”
mavzusida xalqaro ilmiy-amaliy konferensiyasi
376
Figure 2: Impact graph of shocks
In this graph, we can see the effect of a monetary shock on inflation, the key
rate, and the disruption in output. That is, the monetary shock causes the
difference in inflation, the GDP gap, and the main rate to decrease. We can see
that the inflation rate will decrease by about 2%. Variable X is also experiencing
a significant positive decrease. This result is logically correct. Because the
decrease in inflation is reducing the difference between the actual and potential
production volume.
Also, with the help of our model, we can get the forecast results of our
country's GDP.
Chart 3: Gross domestic product forecast
*
Author’s account using Stata 18
software.
The result of our forecast shows that our gross domestic product will be
above 6% until the 1st quarter of 2028. Also, due to the fact that non-inflationary
GDP production is considered important in the economy, we also carry out a
price level forecast.
In conclusion, it should be said that the assessment of the country's
sustainable economic growth depends on various factors. It is expected that the
0
2
4
6
8
2010q1
2014q3
2019q1
2023q3
2028q1
Choraklik davr
YaIM o'sish hajmi prognozi
YaIM o'sish hajmi
“MILLIY IQTISODIYOTNI ISLOH QILISH VA BARQAROR RIVOJLANTIRISH ISTIQBOLLARI”
mavzusida xalqaro ilmiy-amaliy konferensiyasi
377
economic situation of the Republic of Uzbekistan will continue to grow steadily.
Therefore, regular economic analysis helps to identify the factors that lead to the
decline of the economy and to give conclusions about their positive change.
List of used literature
1. Anna Tikhonova, Nadezhda Melnikova, Ezter Lukash; Consequences of the integration to
the Eurasian Economic Union: Methodology of statistical evaluation and first results, 2018. p-6.
2. Dzhumaev Z.A. (2018)., "Macroeconomics". Instructional manual: "Innovative
development publishing-resource house", page 164. / Dzhumaev Z.A. (2018), Macroeconomics.
Instructional manual: "Innovative Development Publishing House", page 164.
3. Daron Acemoglu, James A. Robinson, "Why Nations Fail.", New York-2012. P 93-96.
*** Internet resources
1. www.stat.uz
2. www.databank.worldbank.org
3. https://www.stata.com/manuals/dsge.pdf
4. www.statista.com gdp of Uzbekistan
СОВРЕМЕННЫЕ ТЕНДЕНЦИИ ПОВЫШЕНИЯ ИНВЕСТИЦИОННОЙ
ПРИВЛЕКАТЕЛЬНОСТИ ЭКОНОМИКИ УЗБЕКИСТАНА
Рахимходжаева Нодира Саидахраловна
Свободный соискатель НИЦ “Научные основы и проблемы
развития экономики Узбекистана”
при ТГЭУ
В последние годы Республика Узбекистан
активно реализует
реформы,
направленные
на
повышение
инвестиционной
привлекательности своей экономики. Эти меры включают либерализацию
экономики, улучшение бизнес
-
климата, внедрение цифровых технологий,
а также развитие партнерских отношений с иностранными инвесторами.
Одним из ключевых направлений является снижение бюрократических
барьеров и повышение
прозрачности для иностранных и отечественных
инвесторов. Также особое внимание уделяется развитию инфраструктуры,
модернизации промышленности и аграрного сектора, а также развитию
финансового рынка.
Современные
тенденции
повышения
инвестиционной
привлекательности Узбекистана способствуют активному притоку
прямых
иностранных инвестиций и устойчивому развитию экономики.
Эти реформы направлены на создание благоприятных условий для
бизнеса, что в долгосрочной перспективе должно повысить
экономическую конкурентоспособность страны на международной арене.
Повышения
инвестиционной
привлекательности
экономики
Узбекистана и обеспечение необходимых объёмов инвестиций в целях
модернизации и технического перевооружения отраслей реального
сектора национальной экономики, совершенствование механизмов
